2011 Goya Predictions

Ok, so let's try this.

A couple of weeks ago I accidentally came across a book titled How to Talk About Books You Haven't Read, by French author and literature professor Pierre Bayard. As its self-explanatory title indicates, it is an erudite but hilarious guide on how to comment on books you haven't even opened. My Goya Predictions contribution this year is something similar, since I've only seen one of the four Best Picture nominees (Rodrigo Cortés' Buried) and virtually none of the other films in contention for any category. I have, however, a secret weapon that can help me out in this blind guess: the Spanish Academy's dull predictability and its far from opaque inner mechanics.

This is a peculiar year for the Goyas, and not precisely for the reason one should normally expect, that is, the celebration of its 25^th anniversary. It turns out that Alex de la Iglesia and Icíar Bollaín, president and vice-president of the Spanish Film Academy, which is incidentally also the organizer of the Goya Awards, lead the nominations with 15 and 13 nods, respectively, for their films Balada triste de la trompeta and También la lluvia. No reason for eyebrow-raising or suspicions, though. De la Iglesia and Bollaín are both excellent filmmakers and this curious situation is merely the result of the Academy's tradition of having active and prominent filmmakers and performers in managing positions.

That's not all, though. De la Iglesia has announced his resignation as president of the Academy as soon as tonight's ceremony is over in protest at the already infamous ley Sinde, a Parliament act that should regulate the (il)legal downloading of audiovisual content from the Internet, and that has triggered an unprecedented showdown between artists, filmmakers, politicians and anybody willing to express their opinion on the matter over the last few months.

To add insult to injury, Bollaín has publicly criticized de la Iglesia for his announcement and his excessive involvement in a decision which is, after all, a parliamentary vote, thus creating a tension not only between the two top members of the Academy but also the two main contenders for the Goyas.

In normal circumstances Alex de la Iglesia should have the big prize in the bag. For all its aspirations of idiosyncrasy, nothing pleases more the Academy than to confirm international praise for Spanish films in its own choices. De la Iglesia's double triumph in the Venice Film Festival should therefore be enough to get him the screenplay, directing and film awards, plus the string of down-the-line accolades that usually follow the big ones. The feud between de la Iglesia and Bollain, however, might have upset a large enough number of voters to provide for a surprise win of any of the two non-Spanish language films: Pa Negre, a Catalan-speaking drama about post-war Spain and Buried, Cortés' international hit starring Ryan Reynolds. I don't rule out a big compromise surprise scenario, with Pa Negre taking home the Best Picture trophy and Cortés being recognized for his directing work in Buried. I would be more than pleased with it, and yet it might be too good to be true. If Cortés finally doesn't win the directing award, I hope at least the technical mastery of Buried is recognized in the editing and cinematography categories.

For the rest of the categories, I'll resort to my longtime experience as Goya follower to try to predict what might happen. In the Best Actress category, for example, the Academy loves to recognize (and confirm) performers that have previously triumphed at the San Sebastian Film Festival (Pilar Lopez de Ayala or Laia Marull come to my mind right now), so I guess Nora Navas will take home the acting award this year. In the supporting category they prefer to honour veteran performers (Chus Lampreave, Maria Luisa Ponte, Julia Gutiérrez Caba, Mari Carrillo, Charo Lopez or Carmen Maura in Volver, for instance), so the logical choice would be the great Terele Pavez. I have to confess that it would really make my night, not least because she has never won and has been robbed of at least two nominations (for La Celestina and El Dia de la Bestia), but I'm afraid her character's screen time in Balada might be too short to be considered worthy of award recognition. She's nowhere to be seen in the trailer and, when I asked a good friend who had seen the film about her performance, he replied: are you sure she's in that one? Other strategies I will use include taking into account the century the action of the film takes place in (for make-up and costume design) and any trace of a cute kid in a critically acclaimed film (for the newcomers' acting awards).

So, having said all that, take my predictions not with a pinch but with a handful of salt. Here they are:

Best Film: Pa Negre

Best Director: Alex de la Iglesia (Balada triste de trompeta)

Best New Director: Jonas Trueba (Todas las canciones hablan de mi)

Best Leading Actor: Javier Bardem (Biutiful)

Best Leading Actress: Nora Navas (Pa Negre)

Best Supporting Actor: Alex Angulo (El Gran Vazquez)

Best Supporting Actress: Terele Pavez (Balada)

Best New Actor: Francesc Colomer (Pa Negre)

Best New Actress: Carolina Bang (Balada)

Best Foreign Film in the Spanish Language: Contracorriente

Best European Film: The White Ribbon

Best Original Script: Balada triste de trompeta

Best Adapted Script: Pa Negre

Best Original Score: Biutiful

Best Original Song: Loving Strangers (Habitacion en Roma)

Best Production Design: Balada triste de trompeta (Direc. Prod.)

Best Set Decoration: Lope (Dir. Art.)

Best Cinematography: Buried

Best Editing: Buried

Best Sound: Balada triste de trompeta

Best Visual Effects: Balada triste de trompeta

Best Costume Design: Lope

Best Make-up: Lope

Best Documentary: Bicicleta, cuchara, manzana

Best Animated Film: Chico & Rita

Best Live Action Short Film: El orden de las cosas

Best Documentary Short Film: El cine libertario

Best Animated Short Film: La torre del tiempo