2011 Final Oscar Predictions

Well, here it is. It's the end of the journey. Back in September I posted an entry in the blog with my early Oscar predictions. It was rather a tentative attempt at predicting which of the films with a relative early release date could manage to keep the momentum and the Academy's attention until the decisive moment when its members cast their ballots. 

Many of the choices were outspokenly far-fetched (Yun Junghee's performance in Poetry or Abbas Kiarostami's screenplay for Certified Copy, for instance). From those early picks, only a handful of films had a realistic chance of making the cut, come Oscar nomination time: Roman Polanski's The Ghost Writer, Mike Leigh's Another Year, Christopher Nolan's Inception or, more remotely, Jacques Audiard's A Prophet and animation gem The Illusionist. Only Inception has obtained the expected attention. The Ghost Writer has been shortsightedly snubbed, A Prophet was finally declared ineligible to Oscar contention and Another Year managed to score only in the original screenplay category, thus ignoring the year's best performance (Lesley Manville's as the wretched Mary) and best directorial effort. I'm more than glad that I correctly predicted the impact a small hand-drawn animation film based on a script written in the 1950s could have on the Academy. The Illusionist will lose tonight to Toy Story 3, but the nomination is a nice reward none the less.

Five months later, we are mere hours away from the big night, so it's time to call it a day and share my final 2010 Oscar Predictions. Since I'm a nonconformist in nature, I'll offer up my predicted winners (in bold), my preferred choices (those who, in my opinion, should win) and my pick of those who have been snubbed, ignored or forgotten in the nominations.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: The Ghost Writer

Best Director: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should win: David Fincher (The Social Network)
Should have been nominated: Mike Leigh (Another Year)

Actor in Leading Role: Colin Firth (The King's Speech)
Should win: Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Should have been nominated: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

Actress in Leading Role: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Should win: Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Should have been nominated: Lesley Manville (Another Year)

Actor in Supporting Role: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Should win: John Hawkes (Winter's Bone)
Should have been nominated: Ben Mendelsohn (Animal Kingdom)

Actress in Supporting Role: Melissa Leo (The Fighter) 
Should win: Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Should have been nominated: Elle Fanning (Somewhere)

Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: The Ghost Writer

Original Screenplay: The King's Speech
Should win: Another Year
Should have been nominated: Somewhere  

Foreign Language Film: Incendies (Canada)
Should win: Dogtooth (Greece)
Should have been nominated: Of Gods and Men (France)  

Animated Film: Toy Story 3
Should win: The Illusionist
Should have been nominated: flawless category with 3 nominees

Documentary Film: Exit Through the Gift Shop 
Should win: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Should have been nominated: Catfish   

Art Direction: The King's Speech
Should win: Inception
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island 

Cinematography: True Grit
Should win: True Grit
Should have been nominated: Buried  

Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Should win: I Am Love
Should have been nominated: Made in Dagenham  

Film Editing: The Social Network
Should win: The Social Network
Should have been nominated: Shutter Island 

Makeup: Barney's version
Should win: Barney's version
Should have been nominated: Alice in Wonderland  

Music (Score): The King's Speech
Should win: The Social Network 
Should have been nominated: TRON Legacy 

Music (Original Song): If I Rise (127 Hours)
Should win: If I Rise (127 Hours)
Should have been nominated: Chanson Illusionist (The Illusionist)

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: Inception

Visual Effects: Inception

Documentary (Short): Poster Girl

Short Film (Animated): Day & Night

Short Film (Live Action): God of Love