2011 Emmy preview: picks & predictions

I really like going out on a limb when it comes to predicting the Emmys . There are too many categories and the number of eligible shows and films is simply too large to make a legitimate attempt at completeness and accuracy. In that spirit, I knowingly dodge my responsibilities as meticulous blogger and I'll offer up here, not any realistic predictions, but a very whimsical (and unlikely) list of personal picks and preferences for the 63rd Emmy nominations, which will be announced tomorrow, July 14, at 5:35 AM.

BEST DRAMA SERIES: The Walking Dead, AMC. With Mad Men and Boardwalk Empire as no-brainers in this category, the rest of the slots are out there for a group of six or seven dramas to take. The Good Wife and Justified will probably make the cut, so The Walking Dead will have to fight for one the last two spots. I have to admit I had my misgivings about this adaptation of Robert Kirkman's cult zombie graphic novel, but it has been the most pleasant surprise of the season (that Mad Men is still the best drama on American television is not a surprise by now). The first season was well written and acted and it deserves the recognition of an Emmy nomination. It wouldn't be such a big upset, since it already grabbed a Golden Globe nod as Best Drama, but I'm afraid Emmy voters might turn to more familiar, but definitely less interesting, material like House or Dexter or give in to the hype generated by Game of Thrones. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (DRAMA): If I were to be granted a wish for these nominations, my pick would be 11-year-old Kiernan Shipka as Jon Hamm's and January Jones' daughter in Mad Men. Shipka has been upgraded to series regular in the fourth season, which is already an accomplishment in a series that doesn't let just anyone walk into its main credits. With the plot of the series decisively shifting away from the suburban Drapers' residence back to the Sterling, Cooper, Draper and Price agency (which can prove fatal for January Jones' aspirations to a leading nomination), Sally Draper has nonetheless become one of the central characters. Shipka is so perfect as the complex Sally that she has managed to stand out among a remarkable cast. She has transcended the comfort zone usually reserved to child performers, coming out of extremely difficult scenes with flying colours, not least from that scene on the sofa while watching The Man from U.N.C.L.E. Although I really hope Emmy voters share my opinion on this, I still think it's a long shot. She faces competition from the The Good Wife actresses, category newcomer Margo Martindale and, more importantly, co-star Chistina Hendricks, who is always a delight to watch as the voluptuous Joan and might end up taking the Mad Men slot in the  .

BEST MOVIE/MINISERIES: I really hope Carlos, the three-part French miniseries about Venezuelan convicted terrorist Carlos the Jackal, will emulate its own success at the Golden Globes here at the Emmys. I have only seen the shorter theatrical version, which is one of the best films released in 2010, regardless of the medium it was originally intended for. If the film is recognised, Venezuelan actor Édgar Ramírez should have no problem in making the cut for his fantastic performance.

BEST GUEST ACTRESS (DRAMA): No doubt this is the wildest of my wild card picks, but they'd really make my day if Randee Heller gets a surprise nod in this category. It'd also be a vindication of sorts for all those who (inexplicably for me) complain that Mad Men is an uneventful TV series. Come on, guys, have you seen what's been going on at that desk outside Don's office in the fourth season? As Draper's grumpy, down-to-earth secretary, Heller stole every scene she was in and, like it's usually the case for any secretary working for Draper, she ended up adopting a horizontal position, thus providing for the most hilarious scene in the whole season. This category is usually and monotonously filled up by one-episode guest actors from CSI and Law & Order, and there's no reason to expect anything different to happen this year. Moreover, Heller has effectively a mere dozen lines in the whole season, so this remains a very long shot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (COMEDY): I said at the beginning I like going out on a limb at the Emmys, so I'm going to name here an actress whose chances of scoring a nomination are optimistically meagre and realistically null. As the dim Cheerio Brittany Pierce in Glee, Heather Morris, a former Beyoncé backup dancer who accidentally landed the role while teaching a choreography to the Glee cast, has delivered the best one-liners of recent American television (see clip below). Originally a background character with no written part, Morris has been upgraded to series regular in the second season and her on-and-off thing with Santana has peppered the otherwise dull plotline of the series. The Britney Spears episode could be a good vehicle to secure a nomination in other circumstances, but the category is too busy to allow for any surprise. She faces Cheerio coach co-star Jane Lynch (last year's winner and this year's host), who could win again if she presents the funeral episode for the final vote, the Modern Family girls and, especially, the incomparable Betty White, who already won the SAG for her role in Hot in Cleveland and could well receive her eighth Emmy at the age of 89. 

THE MODERN FAMILY CAST DILEMMA: So all the actors of the series have opted to go supporting, which may be a wise decision and increase their chances individually, but will inevitably cancel them out, with Jesse Tyler Fergusson the most likely cast member to be left out. I think it's Ty Burrel's time for a nod and an ulterior win, with Glee's Chris Colfer maybe his biggest threat. Among the girls, I honestly don't get the awards attention Sofia Vergara has been getting from the beginning. It is a juicy, showy role with memorable lines, but her acting is really weak at times. Actually, I think Julie Bowen gives the most convincing performance among the whole cast. She is really wonderful in the mockumentary moments, a crucial element of the series, and turns the obnoxious character of the controlling wife into something approachable.

AN ACTING NOMINATION FOR THE TRUE BLOOD CAST: The third season of True Blood has shown that the show is increasingly suffering from the Desperate Housewives syndrome, i.e. a series in which so much stuff happens that you end up not giving a damn about anything at all. Anna Paquin and Stephen Moyer are far from memorable in the central roles, but it's Emmy's allergy to vampires which actually accounts for the general ignorance of the supporting cast.  Alexander Skarsgård as the dead Viking hunk and especially Deborah Ann Woll as the heartfelt but impulsive vampire girl in love with the local guy are consistently good and should be recognised with a slot in the shortlist.